cardshoogl.blogg.se - Packetstream growth projections

PACKETSTREAM GROWTH PROJECTIONS UPDATE

The growth of Ontario's population has been affected by the COVID‑19 pandemic through both the disruptions to migration flows and the associated higher mortality.

Ontario's population is projected to increase by 35.8 per cent, or almost 5.3 million, over the next 26 years, from an estimated 14.7 million on July 1, 2020 to over 20.0 million by July 1, 2046.

Highlights of the new 2020–2046 footnote 1 projections for the reference scenario: Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary. The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division.

The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. As part of deriving the assumptions to apply in the updated projections, preliminary data on mortality and migration were analyzed to incorporate potential short-term impacts related to the COVID‑19 pandemic on the demographic components. Many components of demographic change have been affected by the COVID‑19 pandemic.

PACKETSTREAM GROWTH PROJECTIONS UPDATE

This update uses as a base the 2020 population estimates from Statistics Canada (released in February 2021 and based on the 2016 Census) and includes changes in the projections to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to reflect the most up-to-date trends and historical data. These projections were produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance during the spring of 2021. This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the base year of 2020 to 2046. Map of Ontario census divisions Accessible description of Map of Ontario Census Divisions Introduction